Reuters has this from the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock:
All options are on the table regarding sanctions on Russia in the event it attacks Ukraine, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline intended to bring Russian gas to Germany, according to Baerbock.
Western powers are united in their preparation of “unprecedented sanctions” on Russia, Baerbock said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference.
She added:
We, Germany, are prepared to pay a high economic price for this. That’s why all options are on the table for me, also Nord Stream 2.
Despite the lack of a Russian delegation at the security summit for the first time in decades, Baerbock sent a message to the Kremlin, saying that security cannot come at the cost of others.
German federal mMinister for foreign affairs Annalena Baerbock addresses the audience prior to a discussion panel at the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich on Friday. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA
A Russian-backed separatist leader in eastern Ukraine has announced the evacuation of his breakaway region’s residents to southeast Russia after an increase in shelling.
Announcing the move on social media, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving and that women, children and the elderly should be prioritised.
There was no immediate comment from Russian officials or from Kyiv, and a Reuters witness in the region’s capital of Donetsk said there were no signs yet of an evacuation.
Pushilin said:
As of today, Feb. 18, a mass centralised evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organised. Women, children and the elderly are to be evacuated first.
The West needs to keep talking to Russia to make it more difficult for Moscow to launch an attack on Ukraine, Latvia said on Friday, as two days of increased shelling in eastern Ukraine sparked fears a Russian invasion could be imminent.
Diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis must continue, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told Reuters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, a three-day gathering of world leaders that looks set to be dominated by the tensions with Russia.
He said:
While there are diplomatic efforts going on, it is actually very difficult for Russia to invade or to do any kind of provocation.
The EU is considering new restrictive measures to close loopholes on existing sanctions against Belarus, diplomats said - an issue that is likely to come up at a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers on Monday.
The discussion comes amid concern over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could include Russian troops stationed in Belarus. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion, but Western countries believe the opposite.
As a sign of further escalation on the EU’s eastern front, the EU last week told non-essential staff to relocate from Kyiv, one EU diplomat said, while Ukraine is urging the EU to provide emergency support and military training.
Sanctions on Belarus were initially imposed after the president, Alexander Lukashenko, crushed protests following elections in August 2020, and have been tightened several times since then.
The diplomats said new measures could be aimed at closing loopholes that Baltic diplomats said are being exploited by Minsk to circumvent existing sanctions.
The EU has banned Belarus’ exports of potash, a fertiliser made of potassium, and oil products. But diplomats said Belarus is still exporting it to the EU via Ukraine, and has also boosted its export to the EU of oil products obtained from coal.
Baltic country officials are expected to raise these issues at Monday’s meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers, even if Belarus is not on the agenda of the meeting. No decision on the matter is expected on Monday.
A spokesperson for the EU diplomatic service declined to comment on discussions over sanctions.
Greece has dispatched its foreign minister, Nikos Dendias, to Moscow for talks with Sergei Lavrov.
As Christian Orthodox nations, the two countries have long shared traditionally strong ties although in more recent years Greece, a member of the western alliance, has also shored up relations with the US, signing an expansive mutual defence agreement with Washington that has granted the superpower unfettered access to four major military bases.
The facilities are likely to be increasingly used to transfer US troops and equipment to Bulgaria and Romania in the event of a Russian invasion.
Following the talks, Athens’ top diplomat warned:
We will all lose if there is a clash in Ukraine ... the aim of all of us is maintaining peace and security in Europe. Greece is always in favour of peaceful dialogue with Russia. We listen with attention to the demands of Russia regarding its security, as we listen to all the others.
Asked by a reporter with the Greek daily Kathimeri about the escalating tensions in the eastern Ukrainian region Donbass, where a sizeable ethnic Greek minority resides, the Russian foreign minister said:
We are very concerned by the radical increase in fire on the front line. For years the regime in Kiev has violated ceasefire agreements.
Lavrov also described Ukraine’s aspirations to join Nato as a “caprice”.
Analysts in Athens have suggested that Hellenic navy ships will be deployed to evacuate members of Ukraine’s Greek diaspora in the event of an invasion.
Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias visits Moscow. A handout photo made available by the press service of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry shows Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias (L) attending a joint news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 18 February 2022. Photograph: Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry/EPA
The US figure includes Russian-backed separatists, which will partially explain why it is so much higher.
“This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine.”
Russia has up to 190,000 military personnel in and near Ukraine, US claims
The US has claimed the number of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders is significantly higher than previously known.
Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a statement to an OSCE meeting that the number may have nearly doubled since the end of last month.
We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30.
(Carpenter saying “in and near” is likely a reference to areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists)
He added:
This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.
Firing from Rus-backed forces has escalated in last few days near Donbass front line leading to more heartbreak for the mainly elderly & vulnerable people here.
Valentina in Vrubikva was watching tv yesterday morning when the explosions started. Her kitchen annexe destroyed. pic.twitter.com/vpZtCJg31m
Bulgaria’s prime minister, Kiril Petkov, has said his country is fully behind EU sanctions against Russia if Moscow were to order an invasion of Ukraine - a move he described as “close to insanity”.
Petkov, attending his first EU summit since becoming Bulgaria’s prime minister last December, told the Guardian the severity of any Russian attack would determine the scale of the EU’s response.
EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday held an impromptu meeting on the Ukraine crisis, ahead of a scheduled summit with 40 heads of state and government from the African Union.
It remains unclear what would trigger EU sanctions: a full-scale invasion or other forms of aggression, such as cyber-attacks; intensified disinformation, or increased attacks by Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Petkov said that “shelling as usual” in the Donbas region “would not be a trigger”, but added:
If we have a direct invasion both directly into the special regions [of the Donbas] or if we have some move [by Russia] from the Belarusian side – any of those aggressive manoeuvres into the territory of Ukraine would trigger an immediate response.
Petkov said EU leaders had not gone “into the details” of the sanctions package, which is being drawn up by the European Commission, and which would need to be agreed unanimously by all 27 member states.
He said that, despite its dependence on Russian gas, Bulgaria would support the sanctions if Ukraine was invaded.
We are the most dependent of the EU nations [on] Russian gas. Sometimes we are 100% dependent, which is staggering.
EU officials are working on plans to keep gas flowing should Russia choose to retaliate against Western sanctions by cutting energy supplies to Europe.
Petkov reiterated his hopes to see a gas interconnector and 182km pipeline connecting Bulgaria to Greece complete by the summer, bringing cheaper gas from Azerbaijan and breaking Russia’s monopoly. The Bulgarian government said last month delays to the project had cost it €250m in lost revenues in 2021.
Petkov spoke to his Greek counterpart, Kyriákos Mitsotakis, about the project on Thursday.
In the interim, Bulgaria had a contingency plan to deal with any shortfall in gas supplies, he said, promising: “You won’t see a softening of positions due to fear from sanctions.”
Any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be “close to insanity”, Petkov added.
You cannot be in full isolation from the whole world, where the majority of your revenue is coming from.
Continuing to bring up the tension, trying to negotiate as it is right now, I understand the strategic moves from that side. But going into Ukraine, that for me would be close to insanity if you have a fully fledged invasion.
